BANGLADESH: Sitting on a Volcano

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Paper 1096                                                     23.08.2004

by Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations: Talibanisque Pattern Violence Continues:

Bangladesh’s political violence spear headed by Islamic fundamentalist organisations wishing to impose a Taliban state in Bangladesh stands regularly highlighted in this author’s papers for the last six months. 

Bangladesh’s Government’s marked inactivity in controlling or restraining this spiraling trend of political violence against the more democratic elements of Bangladesh’s polity also stands noted earlier. 

Two major developments in the last fortnight which reinforce the above trend,  and are  singularly disturbing  are:

• Assassination attempts on Opposition and Awami Party leader Sheikh Hasina at a public rally in Dhaka in August 21, 2004.
•  Islamic fundamentalists witch-hunt of Ahmediyas and desecration of Ahmediya mosques.

The Bangladesh Government except for a terse disapproval of such incidents by the President and Prime Minister has not come out with any forceful condemnation of these two developments  leaving question marks on the  Prime Minister Begum Khalida Zia’s intentions or her likely political captivity in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists. 

Bangladesh seems to be sitting on a volcano whose political explosion could have serious implications for India and the region and so also for the United States besides violent upheaval in Bangladesh itself. But first a brief coverage on the two developments listed above. 

Assassination Bid Against Awami Party Leader, Begum Sheikh Hasina Wajed.

A string of 13 grenade explosions took place at an Awami League political rally being addressed in Dhaka on August 21, 2004 by Sheikh Hasina.  This political rally was being held to protest the Sylhet, bombings, political killings and fundamentalist terrorism, that has plagued Bangladesh, in recent times. 

Fortunately, Sheikh Hasina escaped unhurt, but many in  the protective ring around her were killed or wounded. The tally is of 18 dead so far and 300 injured including top leaders of the Awami League. 

Bangladesh virtually stands paralysed thereafter by nationwide strikes in the first 24 hours, followed by mass protest prayers on August 22 to be followed by nation wide strikes on August 24-25. All of these have the potential for generating violent clashes in view of the highly politically emotive environment generated by this assassination bid. 

Tensions are high in Dhaka and there have been clashes across the country including burning of six bogies of a Chittagong-Dhaka train. It may be recalled from one of my papers in July 2004, that Sheikh Hasina had received death threats both in Dhaka and while she was in Istanbul for a conference. She had warned the Government that it would be held responsible for her death. The Bangladesh Government seems not to have paid much heed to her warning.

Major Deductions From the Assassination Attempt

The major deductions that emerge are as under:

• Begum Zia’s Government is not serious in tackling the spiraling Talibanisque type of political violence, including assassination of Opposition leaders.
• Begum Zia is a political captive in the hands of her Islamic fundamentalist coalition parties who would like Sheikh Hasina’s exit from the political scene.
• The pattern of grenade throwing at a rally of 25,000 Awami League supporters in front of their Central Office in Dhaka and the firing of weapons on Sheikh Hasina’s car in which she was being whisked away clearly indicates that the main target of this violence was the assassination of Sheikh Hasiana.
• With just about two years left for the next general elections, the Bangladesh Govt. perceives that Sheikh Hasina may be gaining lost political ground by forging some coalition with a dozen odd parties to prevent the return of the Islamic fundamentalist coalition led by Begum Zia. Assassination attempts, violent disruptions of political rallies and death threats may be a means of coercing would-be political coalition partners of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League, not to align with the Awami League.

Religious Persecution of the Ahmediya Sect of Bangladesh Muslims: 

Bangladesh’s Islamic fundamentalists in a replay of Pakistan’s persecution of the Ahmediya sect of Muslims and the Taliban’s aggression on non-Sunni Muslim sects have launched a strong campaign against Bangladeshi Ahmediyas. Ahmediya mosques are being desecrated and worship being prevented. 

In this connection, the following needs to be noted: 

• Chairman of Islamic Okiyo Jote (Islami fundamentalist party) a member of the ruling alliance has gone to the extent of issuing an ultimatum in public that Ahmediyas should be declared non-Muslims, if the Begum Zia government wishes to stay in power.
• “Khatime Nabuwat Andolan Parishad, (Bangladesh)" claiming support of ruling alliance partner Jamaat e Islami (Islamic fundamentalist party) stated on August 15, 2004, that it will keep on laying a siege to all Ahmediya mosques in the country till such time the Ahmediyas identify their place of worship as mosques.

Bangladesh Seems to be Sitting on a Political Volcano: 

It would not be far from the truth to say that Bangladesh is presently sitting on a political volcano which could explode anytime. 

The following factors need to be considered in this context: 

• Law and order has totally disintegrated. The Administration seems to be in grip of the fear of the Islamic Jehadis.
• Islamic fundamentalist parties and Islamic militant outfits are having a free run in Bangladesh in pursuance of their declared objective to make Bangladesh a Taliban state.
• Assassination bids against opposition political leaders, intelligentsia and media journalists seems to be becoming an everyday occurrence.
• Hindus and non-Sunni sects of Muslims are being persecuted by Bangladesh’s Islamic fundamentalist organizations.
• Islamic fundamentalist leaders openly mock the judicial processes and the police  is hampered by the ruling party alliances Islamic leaders reducing them to a helpless spectator.

In such a strife torn and oppressive political situation, most of the Bangladesh masses cannot be expected to remain as mute spectators. The masses cannot be expected to be in state of “ frozen paralysis” due to the terrorization by Islamic fundamentalists. Sharp reactions from the “silent majority” in terms of counter-violence cannot be ruled out. 

And, when that happens Bangladesh will explode in a cycle of violence and counter- violence.

The Bangladesh media has been valiantly raising its voice against this trend of assassinations and mindless political violence. One editorial on August 22, 2004 makes the following observations:

• Pattern of the assassination attack on Sheikh Hasina points out a very well organized, well planned and professionally executed operation.
• “ We have been alerting the Government, ad nauseun to get at the roots of the bomb blasts that have occurred in the country.”
• “We had also cautioned the authorities of the consequences of letting the incidents go untracked and unsolved.”

The pointers are unambiguous and the portents are dangerous for Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Portents Have Serious Implications:

India would be the most seriously impacted by a explosion of political violence in Bangladesh. Spillovers of any violent uprisings in Bangladesh lead to an influx of Bangladesh refugees on a mass scale  and raising of  both political and economic costs. Also such a situation, (reminiscent of 1971) would not permit India to remain as a passive and impotent observer. 

Regionally, political violence and turbulence also has an impact on Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal. South Asian regional security on the whole gets affected. 

The United States in such an event, would have a myriad of problems of which the  two major ones can be recounted: 

• United States will not have one “failed state” (in a high state of Islamic fundamentalisation and Talibanisque mould) but two “failed states” in South Asia, to cater for politically and militarily, namely Pakistan and Bangladesh. Both have matching symptoms now.
• A Talibanised Bangladesh would impinge heavily on US national security interests in South East Asia, ranging from Al Qaedism to security of strategic choke points.

Concluding Observations: 

Bangladesh seems to be currently sitting on a political volcano. The nascent democracy in Bangladesh is under Islamic fundamentalist attack. The Bangladesh Government led by Begum Zia, has not demonstrated in the last six months, any noticeable intents of seriousness, to arrest the downslide. The downslide into political violence, assassinations and bombings is the handiwork of Islamic fundamentalist organisations determined to make Bangladesh into a Taliban state. The Prime Minister Begum Zia is unable to act against these elements as their sponsors form part of the Government. Therefore, the Prime Minister is a political captive in their hands. 

 Failed states in any part of the world are a security threat to their neighbors to the region and also to the global unipolar power. The United States perceives it so and this is reflected in its national security documents. 

The sponsors of Bangladesh’s attempted Talibanisation are United States allies and depend heavily on American support systems. To prevent a volcanic explosion in Bangladesh, the United Sates needs to restrain its protégés. Its reluctance in the past led to the emergence of Al Qaedists and the senseless bombings of 9/11. 

The United States and India, chiefly, need to put their heads together to prevent  the emergence of another security headache in South Asia, impinging on their national security interests and also their mutual convergences in this field.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila @yahoo.com)

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